United States Antimony Corporation just posted the best year in its 60-year history. Revenue up 163%. Gross profit up 185%. A $91.3 million war chest. And $354 million in signed contracts heading into 2026. The stock is trading 58% below its 52-week high.
That gap between the business and the stock is the whole story.
What UAMY Actually Does
UAMY (NYSE: UAMY) is the only commercial antimony producer in the United States. Based in Thompson Falls, Montana, the company smelts antimony — a critical mineral used in military ammunition, night-vision systems, flame retardants, and battery technology. It also produces zeolite (water treatment, agriculture) and is developing tungsten production at its Fostung deposit in Ontario.
The critical minerals angle isn’t marketing fluff. Antimony is literally on the U.S. government’s “most critical minerals” list. The U.S. currently has exactly one domestic producer: UAMY.
China controls roughly 84% of global antimony supply and halted exports in fall 2024. That sent prices up over 400% to record highs by mid-2025. Prices have moderated since but remain nearly 3x historical levels. This is the same supply chain weapon China used on gallium, germanium, and graphite — if you want context on how those moves affected small cap materials stocks, our piece on critical mineral supply chain plays covers the broader pattern.
FY2025 by the Numbers
From the March 19, 2026 earnings release (8-K, items 2.02 and 9.01):
- Revenue: $39.26M vs. $14.94M in 2024 — up 163%
- Gross profit: $9.87M vs. $3.47M — up 185%
- Gross margin: 25%, up from 23%
- Net loss: -$4.34M — but $6.7M of this was non-cash (share-based comp, depreciation, IVA reserve)
- Adjusted for non-cash: The business generated net income of ~$2.36M on a cash basis
Quarterly breakdown shows acceleration. Q2 2025: $10.53M revenue (+187% YoY). Q3: $8.71M (+238%). Q4: $13.03M (+90%). The company drove $35.4M of that $39.26M total from antimony alone — a 219% increase, driven almost entirely by price, not volume. Average selling price per pound increased 230%.
The balance sheet is surprisingly clean for a sub-$50M revenue company:
- Total assets: $153.9M
- Total liabilities: $12.97M
- Shareholders’ equity: $140.96M
- Net cash (cash + T-bills + equity securities): $91.3M at December 31, 2025
- Long-term debt: essentially zero ($60K)
UAMY raised over $110M in 2025 through ATM offerings and three direct placements with institutional investors. Dilutive — shares outstanding went from 109M to 139M. But they put it to work: $27.8M in capex (Thompson Falls smelter expansion, Radersburg flotation facility, mineral rights), and $37.2M to acquire 51.7M shares — roughly 10% — of Larvotto Resources, an Australian gold and antimony mining company.
Antimony inventory: 465 tons at year-end vs. 78 tons in 2024. At March 2026 Rotterdam prices, that’s worth $11.1M.
The 2026 Setup: $125M Guidance
The company is guiding $125M in gross revenue for 2026. That’s 218% growth from 2025 if they hit it. The path:
Montana mining coming online. UAMY restarted domestic antimony mining at Stibnite Hill, Montana in 2025. Historically, buying from Chinese intermediaries eats margin. As in-house feedstock flows through the Radersburg flotation facility — now operational — and the expanded Thompson Falls smelter, gross margins should expand materially from the current 25%. The company flagged this explicitly: the 25% margin in 2025 was achieved “prior to processing any Company-mined Montana feedstock.”
Signed government contracts. UAMY executed $354M in combined government and commercial contracts in 2025. In March 2026, the DoD selected UAMY under its Strategic Antimony Supply Chain Expansion initiative with a $27M critical minerals funding award. This isn’t a “potential future contract” — the revenue is committed.
Tungsten upside. UAMY completed the technical report on its Fostung tungsten deposit in Ontario on March 3, 2026. China halted tungsten exports in 2024; prices surged 200%. UAMY is positioned to become the first North American tungsten producer in over 12 years. That segment isn’t in the $125M guidance — it’s optionality.
Zeolite acceleration. Small segment ($3.4M in 2025) but new customer relationships are expected to drive growth in 2026. Not material to the thesis, but adds to the top line.
Why Is It Down 58% From the High?
The stock peaked at $19.71 in late 2025, then got cut in half. Three reasons:
The multiple was unsustainable. At $19.71 with $39M trailing revenue, UAMY was priced at roughly 30x sales with no earnings. When antimony prices started moderating from all-time highs, the premium compressed fast.
Dilution hit. 31% more shares outstanding in one year. Even if the business doubled in value, each share owns less of it. The ATM offering overhang scared retail holders out.
Guidance-vs-reality gap. $354M in contracts sounds enormous against $39M in revenue. The market priced in a faster ramp. The Radersburg plant, Montana mining, smelter expansion — it all takes longer than the narrative suggests. Q1 and Q2 2025 were disappointing relative to the hype cycle. The stock is still pricing in some skepticism about the $125M guide.
Short Interest: 21.25%
26.53M shares short. Short ratio of 1.84 days. That’s elevated but not extreme for a volatile critical minerals play.
The short thesis: continued dilution, margin compression, and a failure to deliver on $125M. If Q1 2026 numbers disappoint, there’s room for the stock to go lower — this thing was at $1.69 a year ago.
The squeeze setup: if UAMY posts Q1 2026 revenue of $25M+ (implied by $125M guide), with improved margins from domestic ore, the short position becomes painful fast. 1.84 days to cover is tight if the stock moves.
Bull Case
At $8.16 and $1.17B market cap, you’re paying:
- ~9.3x forward EV/Sales on $125M guidance (enterprise value is about $1.08B after netting $91.3M cash)
- ~$7.75/share in tangible book value — the stock isn’t far above book
- A domestic monopoly on a military-critical mineral with $354M in signed contracts
If UAMY delivers $100M in 2026 revenue at 30% gross margins — conservative assumptions — that’s $30M gross profit. Get SG&A under control (which should happen as the scaling phase ends), and you’re looking at a company that could trade at 3-5x revenue by year-end. That’s $12-20/share.
The analyst targets ($2.50 to $12.69) are all stale — set when the stock was under $3. The Street hasn’t caught up to the current business reality.
Bear Case
The risks are real and worth taking seriously:
Antimony prices fall further. They’re still ~3x historical levels. If China reverses export controls or new supply comes online elsewhere, the pricing environment deteriorates and margins compress. UAMY’s cost structure is built for current antimony prices.
$125M guidance is a stretch. That implies ~$85M in H2 2026 — roughly double what H2 2025 delivered. This requires Montana mining to ramp fast and the Radersburg flotation plant to operate at scale. Mining ramps rarely go according to plan.
More dilution is likely. UAMY has been issuing stock continuously. With no earnings and ongoing capex needs, another ATM offering in 2026 would not be surprising. At a $1.17B market cap, even a 10% issuance raises ~$117M but dilutes existing holders.
Execution complexity. In two years, this company went from a $7.75M revenue OTC stock to managing $354M in contracts, a new flotation facility, an expanded smelter, a 10% stake in an Australian mining company, and a tungsten development program — simultaneously. That’s a lot to execute with 101 employees.
For a look at how commodity-driven small caps can go wrong when the macro environment shifts, see our copper mining analysis: Copper Supply Crisis: Small Cap Mining Stocks for 2026.
Verdict
UAMY is not a stock you set and forget. It’s a $1.17B market cap company with $39M trailing revenue, $125M in forward guidance, zero debt, and a domestic monopoly on a defense-critical mineral that America cannot do without.
Between $7-9, the risk/reward is compelling if you believe in the $125M setup. At current levels, you’re paying roughly book value for an option on the largest domestic antimony producer at a moment when China has weaponized its control over the mineral. The $91.3M cash balance and $354M in contracts are real. The execution timeline is not.
Watch Q1 2026 results closely — expected late May or early June. If Radersburg is fully operational and the company reports Q1 revenue of $25M+ with improving margins, the $125M guidance becomes credible and the stock has a clear path back to $12-15. If Q1 misses, the skeptics win another round.
This one is a hold/watch until the Q1 print. Buyers at $7.50 or below are getting paid to wait on the thesis.
Also worth tracking in the context of geopolitical materials plays: Small Cap Mining Stocks and Geopolitical Risk.
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions. I hold no position in UAMY.