Remitly Global (NASDAQ: RELY) just posted its first profitable year, grew revenue 29%, and trades at 13x forward earnings. Sixteen analysts say buy. The average price target implies 42% upside. And almost nobody outside fintech circles is talking about it.
Here’s the full breakdown.
The Numbers That Matter
Q4 2025 revenue came in at $442.2 million, up 25.7% year-over-year and beating consensus by 3.4%. For the full year, Remitly generated $1.64 billion in revenue (29.4% growth) and $68 million in net income — its first annual profit since going public in 2021.
The Q4 EPS surprise was absurd: analysts expected near-zero and got $0.31 per share. That’s a four-quarter streak of beats, with the prior three quarters also topping estimates.
- Market cap: $3.2 billion
- Revenue (TTM): $1.64 billion (+29.4%)
- Net income: $68 million (first profitable year)
- Forward P/E: 13.3x
- Gross margin: 62.7%
- Operating margin: 8.8%
- Short interest: 4.88% of shares outstanding (10.2M shares)
2026 Guidance: 19-20% Revenue Growth With Room to Beat
Management guided 2026 revenue to $1.94–$1.96 billion, good for 19–20% growth. That’s a deceleration from 2025’s 29% pace, but the company has a habit of guiding conservatively and beating. Full-year 2025 revenue came in $60 million above the midpoint of initial guidance.
Send volume — the real demand signal — grew 35% in Q4 to $21 billion. That’s not revenue growing while volume stalls; active usage is accelerating. Send volume per active customer hit $2,200, up 13% year-over-year and an all-time high.
The new product pipeline is where it gets interesting. Remitly Flex (installment-based remittances), Remitly Business, and membership programs are all scaling. Management expects new product revenue to more than double in 2026.
The Bull Case
Profitability inflection. Remitly burned cash for years. FY2025 was the turn. With fixed-cost infrastructure now in place and send volumes still compounding at 30%+, margins should expand from here. The company is already at 8.8% operating margin.
Analyst consensus is aggressively bullish. Sixteen buys, one hold, zero sells. JP Morgan has a $22 target. Goldman Sachs says $20. The average across 17 analysts is $22.78 — 42% above the current ~$16. TD Cowen is the most aggressive at $25.
Global remittance is a $700+ billion market growing 5-6% annually. Remitly’s digital model is taking share from Western Union and MoneyGram, which still rely heavily on agent networks. Digital cross-border payments are projected to grow at 12%+ CAGR through 2030.
Immigration trends are a structural tailwind. Remitly’s core customer base is immigrant workers sending money home. Immigration to major corridors (US-to-LatAm, Europe-to-Africa/Asia) continues to grow, and digital adoption among newer arrivals skews heavily toward mobile-first platforms like Remitly.
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Four consecutive EPS beats with estimates still rising. That’s the kind of estimate revision momentum that historically precedes further upside.
The Bear Case
CEO transition risk. Remitly announced that Sebastian Gunningham will take over as CEO, replacing the outgoing leader who built the company from scratch. CEO transitions at high-growth companies are coin flips. Gunningham comes with a strong background (he was previously at Amazon and Orchard), but any leadership change introduces execution risk.
Competition is brutal. Wise (formerly TransferWise) is the dominant digital remittance player with a $12 billion market cap. Western Union is fighting back with digital offerings. PayPal’s Xoom and Revolut also compete. Remitly has carved out a niche in the immigration corridor, but there are no meaningful switching costs for customers.
Gross margins look great at 62.7%, but that’s misleading. Remitly’s take rate (revenue as a percentage of send volume) is roughly 2%. That’s thin. If competition drives take rates lower, the math gets ugly fast. Wise already undercuts on price.
Valuation isn’t as cheap as the 13x forward P/E suggests. That number is based on next-twelve-month estimates that assume continued margin expansion. If growth decelerates faster than expected — management guided 19-20% for 2026, down from 29% — the multiple could compress further.
Debt/equity ratio of 22.1x. Yes, the current ratio is 3.3x and cash/price is 16.1%. But the leverage is real. If the global economy slows and remittance volumes dip, debt service becomes a concern.
Key Metrics Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.2B |
| TTM Revenue | $1.64B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +29.4% |
| Net Income (TTM) | $68M |
| Forward P/E | 13.3x |
| Gross Margin | 62.7% |
| Operating Margin | 8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding | 210.7M |
| Short Interest | 4.88% |
| 52-Week Range | $12.08 – $24.71 |
| Analyst Avg Target | $22.78 (+42%) |
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The Verdict
Remitly at $16 is compelling. At 13x forward earnings with 20% revenue growth, improving margins, and a clear path to profitability expansion, the stock is pricing in way too much pessimism. The analyst consensus of $22.78 is probably right — this should trade closer to $20 once Q1 2026 earnings (May 6) confirm the trajectory.
That said, I’d wait for a pullback below $15 before building a position. The CEO transition adds uncertainty, and the stock has been range-bound between $15 and $17 since early March. If Q1 shows send volume growth holding above 30% and new products scaling on schedule, $22+ is achievable by mid-2026.
Buy below $15. Hold if you’re in. Don’t chase above $18 until the CEO transition settles.
This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold no position in RELY.